This baseball off-season has been dominated by two stories of dissimilar natures. One is the much maligned Mitchell Report, which concerns the corruption of the illusory romance America has with its professional games. The other has been the well-chronicled saga involving uber-pitcher, Johan Santana.
From my spectatorial vantage point, I have no reason to believe that Santana has taken, is taking, or wants to take steroids or HGH (although, I would understand if he did). Fantasy baseball has the peculiar fortune of being concerned with yearly statistics and not their historical accumulation. As a result, questions regarding the past only matter if they can be relied upon to predict the future. Santana on ‘roids matters not; however, Santana in New York matters a lot.
It is from that spirit of egoism that I examine the fantasy implications that follow from Santana’s recent uniform switch (and tax bracket leap, I might add).
Listed at 6′0, 208 lbs., Santana’s slight build belies a mid 90’s fastball with life, a plus change-up that blurs the laws of physics every time it’s thrown, as well as a serviceable slider. With that said, lefties should call in sick to work when Santana’s in town, and righties should just hope the ESPN camera man is dozing off when it’s their turn at the dish. In the midst of his physical prime (he will turn 29 in March), he has spent the last 3.5 years dominating the offensively-inclined American League. During that span he has averaged 200+ innings pitched, 200+ K’s per season (07′ 9.66 K’s/9, and 4.52 K/BB ratio), as well as sporting an ERA under 3.00 and a WHIP that hovers just above 1.00. Victory does not come without its spoils, as Santana has twice been the recipient of a Cy Young Award, in addition to a Gold Glove in 2007.
His track record is as consistent as his future is bright, which, when taken in combination, has a justifying affect on his status as a first round mainstay and the consensus first pitcher taken in fantasy drafts.
Despite the gaudy numbers, Santana has had his detractors in the world of fantasy baseball, most of which arise out of blind principle and not observable particulars. I’m referring to that general paradigm prevalent in the fantasy baseball world that suggests hitting be selected over pitching, as the oftentimes volatile unpredictability of performance and health of the latter is often viewed as an unnecessary risk early in a draft. Additionally, the type of league one is involved in can affect a player’s projected worth. Santana’s value would appear greater in a rotisserie league where a cap is placed on expendable innings, whereas, in a 5×5 H2H league his dominance in ERA and WHIP take precedence over categories such as K’s and W’s that can be augmented through spot starters, et al. Being a starting pitcher obviously precludes him from contributing to saves, which further devalues him in comparison to an offensive player that can touch all 5 categories, without exception.
All things considered, I find myself adhering to the aforementioned paradigm more often than not. My reasoning for this, in addition to what has already been mentioned above, is that a watchful owner can augment his pitching deficiency easier than one in the hitting department. I think I stand a much better chance at pulling a plus pitcher from the waiver wire (F. Carmona, JJ Putz, T. Lilly, J. Shields, C. Young, J. Maine, and that’s just out of the final top 50) than I do of pulling a guy that’s going to give me 30 homeruns or 50 stolen bases. In short, the Ted Lillys of the world are much more abundant than the Ryan Brauns, and as such, I draft accordingly.
This common paradigm holds in most cases (at least in my experience), however, it seems like an unnecessary precaution in light of Santana’s track record (health and performance) which doesn’t suggest any near future alterations outside of divine intervention. In fact, his move to New York actually looks to improve his numbers, and increase his already stellar fantasy value.
The first and most obvious benefit to Santana is the change to the National League. Generally, he moves to a foreign league where the hitters will require time to study him, which, as in most cases, places the advantage on the side of the pitcher. Specifically, there are no teams in the NL that sport a ‘murderer’s row’ caliber lineup like that of the Yankees or Red Sox. Additionally, he gets to trade in his frequent encounters with the offensive juggernauts of the AL Central (Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, and when the planets are aligned, KC) for the less imposing NL East (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington, Florida). I will admit that Philly is no cakewalk and Atlanta is still dangerous (even without Mendoza Jones (Andruw)), but I doubt anyone will argue the other two aren’t already W’s in the column. As a whole, the learning curve and decrease offensive potency of competition stand to benefit Santana, greatly.
Santana’s move from the Metrodome to the confines of Shea will only matter marginally. The Metrodome ranked as the 3rd most favorable park for pitchers in 2007, while Shea ranked only slightly worse at 8th. The move from turf to grass should only nominally figure into things, as well; however, the defensive stalwarts that occupy the positions behind him are a serious upgrade (T. Hunter, notwithstanding). The Mets showcase a defensive unit that includes 3 gold glove winners (Castillo, Wright, Beltran), along with a future one in Jose Reyes, and a defensive specialist at catcher in Brian Schneider. As long as he can keep the ball out of the bleachers, which he has had trouble with (33 in 07′), Santana should benefit from his new defense.
What does this all mean for fantasy owners? Before his move to NY, Santana was a first round pick, and debatably the first pitcher off the board (I use ‘debatably’ as a loose acknowledgment of any fantasy owners that have suffered brain trauma or are clinically insane). With his ascension into contractual history, he solidifies his position in the mid to latter first round in mixed leagues, and becomes a top 3 pick in NL only leagues. In a mixed format I would still take several big bats before him (A-Rod, Reyes, Wright, Pujols, and a few other contentious ones), but in NL only leagues the shortage of elite arms leads me to value him above guys like H. Ramirez and R. Howard. The next best thing is J. Peavy and then the list drops off a bit (B. Webb, D. Haren, R. Oswalt, C. Hamels, C. Zambrano), only to drop off significantly after that. In my opinion, only Peavy could match Santana as an unquestioned ace for a fantasy staff, but I think the Met offense combined with the league switch puts Santana well above the rest of the pack.
My advice on draft day, if Santana falls to you, put the paradigm of ‘hitting first’, aside. His track record is as solid as it comes, and all the intangible elements are in favor of an increase in performance. He is the sort of pitcher that can anchor an entire staff, particularly in leagues where innings are limited. With that said, I think fantasy owners stand to gain, along with Santana, from his move to the New York Mets.
Derek is a special contributor to MindRiteSports.com. He can be reached at ddaskala@gmu.edu.