Team by Team Analysis and Predictions: AL East

Overview: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay put up a mark of 66-69, and the franchise continues to be a lesson in futility for baseball enthusiasts, worldwide.

The Rays (Atheism=wins?) spent their offseason jettisoning misogynist Elijah Dukes (Nationals), and Umpire Association devotee Delmon Young (Twins). They also added some promising talent in SS Jason Bartlett and P Matt Garza (Both from Twins), and some decrepit stiffs in Cliff Floyd (FA) and Troy Percival (FA).

The Rays outfield, when healthy, ranks among the most athletic and talented in the league. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton blur when they walk, and have the hitting skills to match. Rocco Baldelli, well, I’m just going to assume he’ll be injured by May, which leaves the once great Cliff Floyd (play Ken Griffey Jr. Baseball for SNES if you don’t believe me) and strikeout machine Jonny Gomes to man right.

The infield will feature stud prospect Evan Longoria at third, defensively minded Jason Bartlett at short, converted 2b Akinori Iwamura, and last year’s surprise, Carlos Pena at first.

Dioner Navarro mans home, and should continue to be adequate at keeping runners honest, but his offensive numbers lead me to predict he won’t be playing the role of base runner very often, himself.

The Tampa Bay pitching staff looks promising at the top, as studs Scott Kazmir and James Shields return. Matt Garza and former Dodger prospect Edwin Jackson lead a pack of contenders for the final 3 rotation spots. In all likelihood, this rotation won’t have a reliable 4^th or 5^th starter, which will prove problematic for their bullpen.

Troy Percival was one of the feel-good stories of the 2007 season, and there are few in this league as experienced in closing out games. That said, he will turn 39 this year, was forced to retire due to arm troubles, and will likely not be available in back to back games this year. Throw in 37 yr old Al Reyes, and the unreliable Dan Wheeler, and you’ve got big trouble in little Chinatown.

Prediction:

Tampa Bay is explosive on offense and has a good 1-2 punch in their pitching rotation. There still remains many questions to be answered, and the overall stigma of (Devil) Rays baseball, but I see a team on the cusp of success, and I will predict them to finish 3^rd in the AL East. Much can go wrong, particularly in such a competitive division, but they are already better than the Orioles, and I think if a few things go the Rays’ way, they’ll perform better than the Blue Jays.

Overview: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore finished the 2007 season with a mark of 69-93, good enough to tie Kansas City for the third worst record in the league.

The Orioles approached the offseason with an ‘addition by subtraction’ mentality. Gone are budding star Erik Bedard, all steroid shortstop and monumental disappointment Miguel Tejada, speed demon and sub-.300 OBP outfielder Corey Patterson. Additionally, the rumors point to second baseman Brian Roberts exiting stage left, as well.

Baltimore’s most promising offseason acquisition comes in the form of uber-prospect Adam Jones, who will likely man center. He is joined in the outfield by the underpaid Nick Markakis and a smorgasbord of bums in left that include the recently acquired Luke Scott, the aging Tike Redman, the even further decayed Jay Payton, and the roidless Jay Gibbons.

The infield will feature the steadily declining Melvin Mora at third, young defensive savant Luis Hernandez at short, stud second baseman Brian Roberts (at least for the time being), and a revolving door of defensively and offensively inadequate first basemen/designated hitters (K. Millar, A. Huff).

Ramon Hernandez remains behind the dish, which means old women, paraplegics, and tumbleweed caught in a light breeze should have a high success rate at stealing bases.

The Baltimore pitching staff is young, talented, and promising, which, in all likelihood, probably means a team ERA over 5.00. Ace and free pass specialist, Daniel Cabrera returns, along with the still developing Jeremy Guthrie, Adam Loewen, and Hayden Penn.

With the season ending injuries to closer Chris Ray and deputy closer Danys Baez, the bullpen enters 2008 plagued by question marks. Newly acquired lefty George Sherrill is the popular choice for the closing role, however, Jamie Walker and Greg Acquino, both have experience at failing miserably in the role.

Prediction:

Baltimore’s 2 best players left town this winter, and that only means so much to a team that narrowly missed finishing in the cellar last season. The Orioles will definitely finish there this season, and just may prove to be the worst team in the league.

Overview: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto finished last season with an 83-79 mark, which was good enough for 3^rd in the AL East, but proved to be disappointing for a team that many predicted to compete for a playoff spot.

The Blue Jays did not help themselves very much this winter, as they traded the often injured Troy Glaus to St. Louis for the often injured Scott Rolen. Rolen is a stud with the glove, but provides no more security at the position. They also signed the undersized David Eckstein to play SS, who has made a career out of proving the critics wrong, and will need to go a long way to vindicate this signing when the rest of the league sees him as a second baseman.

The Blue Jays’ outfield is stocked with talent and features burgeoning star Alex Rios, the recently underperforming Vernon Wells, Reed Johnson, and professional hitter Matt Stairs.

The infield features gold glover Scott Rolen and his replacement upon injury Marco Scutaro at third, Eckstein at short, promising Aaron Hill at second, and the always streaky Lyle Overbay at first.

Gregg Zaun and Rod Barajas will split time behind the dish. Zaun will turn 37 in April and the crime rate skyrockets on the base paths when he’s the receiver. Barajas is younger (32) and is much more efficient at throwing at would-be base stealers, but he’s never been an everyday player, so expect this time share to remain all year.

Roy Halladay, despite the decreased K-rate, is among the best in the business, and A.J. Burnett is absolutely electric when he’s healthy. Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Gustavo Chacin round out the rotation and should all be considered breathing stiffs.

The health of mega closer BJ Ryan (Tommy John surgery) has stirred much debate, and it remains to be seen whether he is healthy enough to return to that role. In the meantime, Jeremy Accardo pitched fantastically in that capacity last season, finishing with 30 saves and a 1.11 WHIP.

Prediction:

The Blue Jays have a few solid elements on the both sides of the ball, but I don’t see them as any more than a mediocre team, and that won’t get them far in the AL East. Look for Toronto to have an up and down season, but ultimately being outpaced by Tampa Bay and finishing in 4^th place.

Overview: New York Yankees

The Yanks posted a 94-68 mark and made it into the playoffs, yet again, only to lose to Cleveland in the AL Division series, yet again.

The offseason proved to be more hype than substance, as New York was involved in a potential trade for P Johan Santana. The Yankees were able to bolster their bullpen with the addition of LaTroy Hawkins, and also added 3b Morgan Ensberg, who doesn’t have a position with Alex Rodriguez at 3^rd and a log jam of veterans vying for DH time.

Important departures include the much embattled Roger Clemens and defensive specialist Doug Mientkiewicz.

The Yankee outfield is deep and talented with reformed caveman Johnny Damon, developing star Melky Cabrera, and the recently inconsistent Bobby Abreu penciled in to start. Hideki Matsui and Shelley Duncan will also figure into the mix.

The infield is as good as they come, with A-Rod at the 3-bagger, uber-athlete Derek Jeter at short, Robinson Cano at the 2-bagger, and the much maligned Jason Giambi at first.

Jorge Posada and Jose Molina will split time behind the dish. Posada will turn 37 this season, and while still a potent offensive force his defensive numbers are steadily decreasing. Molina, however, is a strong defensive backstop, but can’t hit a lick.

The Yankee rotation features ace sinker baller Chien-Ming Wang, ageless wonders Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, and young guns Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes. At some point in the season, Joba Chamberlain is expected to join the rotation, as well. Wang should post excellent numbers, but Pettitte and Mussina, health pending, are no sure thing. Kennedy and Hughes are as promising as they come, and they are being counted upon to perform.

The bullpen is led by the always reliable Mariano Rivera, whom I’m convinced will be the Yankees closer in 2020. Chamberlain will begin the season in a set up role, thus limiting the damage the catcher’s hand will take to the 8^th inning, only. Then we have Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins. Both failed closers and gopher ball specialists, whom will provide much needed depth to a strong pen.

Prediction:

The Yankees are the epitome of the ‘haves’ in the baseball world, and I expect (as George did) them to perform accordingly. Their offense is top notch and their pitching staff has the potential to be elite, as well. I think another playoff appearance is eminent, but I think it will be as a wild card, again. The Yankees may even challenge the 100 win mark, but I don’t think they will overtake the Red Sox at the top of the AL East.

Overview: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox, as you know, posted a 96-66 mark on their way to defeating the Colorado Rockies in the World Series.

The offseason was relatively quiet for the Red Sox, as they too were involved in the endless trade negotiations for P Johan Santana. Declining relievers Brendan Donnelly and Eric Gagne have left town and the awkward swinging Sean Casey has signed up.

The Boston outfield is loaded and features Manny “Trade Me” Ramirez in left, Coco “My mother hated me” Crisp and developing stud Jacoby Ellsbury in center, and monumental bust JD Drew in right.

The infield features the resurging Mike Lowell at third, the speedy Julio Lugo at short, 2007 ROTY Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin “YooooK” Youkilis at first. David “Big Papi” Ortiz will, of course, occupy the DH role.

Team captain, Jason Varitek, will man the dish. Look for him to remain adequate on both sides of the ball.

Josh Beckett narrowly missed winning the ALCY last year, and returns to a rotation that includes Daisuke Matsuzaka, the injured Curt Schilling, knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, cancer survivor Jon Lester, and developing stud Clay Buchholz. The health of Beckett and Curt Schilling will play hugely into the Red Sox season.

The Red Sox bullpen features automatic closer, Jonathan Papelbon, as well as Julian Tavarez, Mike Timlin, and Japanese wonder Hideki Okajima. Tavarez and Timlin are not spring chickens, so health is a concern, and Okajima ran into some trouble down the stretch in 2007, but if they can manage to get to Papelbon, this should prove to be a strong bullpen.

Prediction:

The Red Sox are as dangerous as they come, and feature a good mix of proven veterans and promising talent. Health is the only thief that can steal a successful 2008 season from this team. Beckett has been nicked up in spring training and Schilling’s shoulder will be an issue all year (if he pitches at all). The offense is strong enough to drive this team, but they will need their pitching to stay healthy if they hope to surmount the NY Yankees. I expect the Red Sox to win 100 games, win the AL East, and be the favorites to represent the AL in the World Series, again.