Archive for August, 2008

25.08.08

MLB Mid-Season Review: Final Predictions

- Baseball -

Alright sports fans, here is the anointed moment where I will extend predictions for the remainder of the season and embarrass myself in the process. What follows is not intended for children under the age of 36, and I highly recommend wearing protection while reading is in progress.

In the NL, I have predicted the Mets, Cubs, and D-Backs to win their respective divisions. With further foresight, I will select the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NL Wild Card, and meet the top-ranked Cubs in the first round of the playoffs. The 2-seed Mets will meet the 3-seed Diamondbacks, and the Diamondbacks will emerge victorious behind the 1-2 punch of Webb and Haren. The Brewers and Cubs will go the full 5 games, and Milwaukee will topple Chicago; thereby, ensuring that utopia isn’t realized on the north side of Chicago for at least another year. In the NLCS, the Brewers offense will prove too strong for the offensively challenged D-Backs, and they will earn a trip to the 2008 World Series.

In the AL, I have divined that the Red Sox, White Sox, and Angels will all win their divisions. My crystal ball has told me that there is a great sale going on at Kohl’s this weekend, and that the Minnesota Twins will win the AL Wild Card. The Twins will get the unenviable honor of meeting the 1-seed Angles in the first round of the playoffs, where their season will come to a close. The 2-seed Red Sox and 3-seed White Sox will also meet, and Chicago will outlast Boston in 5 games. Anaheim and Chicago will go the full 7 games, but the White Sox will earn the right to represent the AL in the World Series.

The Brewers and White Sox will make for abysmal television ratings, but the series will go 6 games with Milwaukee laying claim to the title. The clouds over Wisconsin will disperse and head straight for Illinois, beer will run through the streets (as will I), and C.C. Sabathia will wind up on the cover of Time magazine. Now, it is said that with great power comes great responsibility; hence, I feel it is my duty to tell anyone planning to place monetary bets based upon the information that I’ve given that I will undoubtedly be proven wrong. There, I’ve covered myself; and, that, as they say, is that.

05.08.08

MLB Mid-Season Review: NL Central

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The 6-team royal rumble that is the NL Central has turned out to be one of baseball’s strongest and most competitive divisions. Chicago stands at an impressive 16 games over .500, however, their margin of error remains small as Milwaukee and surprise St. Louis are 1 and 2 games back, respectively. Cincinnati, despite being only 4 games under .500, find themselves a whopping 10 games off the division lead. If they played in the NL West, they’d be tied for 2nd place and a mere 1 game back. Houston and lowly Pittsburgh are tied for cellar honors at 12 games back.

The Cubs haven’t won a World Series in 100 years, and I’m sure the Wrigley bandwagon is a bit crowded these days due to the rampant circulation of that fact; nonetheless, their lineup is loaded with talent. Derrek Lee (64, 15, 59, .298), who appears fully recovered from a wrist injury that he sustained in 06’ and sapped his power numbers in 07’, and third baseman, Aramis Ramirez (59, 17, 66, .269), continue to anchor the order. Asian sensation and residential hatamoto, Kosuke Fukudome (61, 7, 36, .279), has provided the steady left handed bat the Cubs have lacked in recent years. Rookie receiver, Geovany Soto (38, 16, 56, .275), has been a pleasant surprise and boon to the offense. Even Padre wash out, Jimmy Edmonds (26, 11, 37, .237), has been spotted parking balls on the opposite side of the ivy around game time. Alfonso Soriano (36, 15, 40, .283), the world’s worst lead off hitter, has had an injury riddled campaign, as he’s already spent 2 stints on the DL (strained calf, broken finger). Despite that fact, he’s managed to post solid numbers when playing, and his imminent return should serve to bolster an already potent lineup.

Chicago has been the recipient of some solid pitching, thus far. Ace and clubhouse boxing champ, Carlos Zambrano (2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 81/44 K/BB, 10-4), has spent much of the year pitching like a #2; however, he is without doubt the best hitting pitcher in the league, and could reasonably bat 6th or 7th on a nightly basis (20-57; .351 Avg). Ryan Dempster (3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 111/51 K/BB, 11-4) has made a successful transition to the rotation from the closing role that he’s held for the past 3 seasons, and Ted Lilly (4.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 114/43 K/BB, 9-6) has provided quality pitching, as well. In the bullpen, Bobby Howry continues to carry BP over into the game as he’s given up almost as many earned runs (25) as K’d batsmen (35). During the first quarter of the season, Carlos Marmol (4.05 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 70/25 K/BB) was so good that the defense actually started holding a poker game behind the 2nd base bag when he was on the mound, but has struggled with control issues of late. We have already seen Kerry Wood (3.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 55/13 K/BB, 24 saves) evolve from the next Roger Clemens into the next Chicagoan Wal-Mart attendant, and this season has seen him further evolve into the next John Smoltz (well, sort of).

There is hope in Milwaukee, these days, and not simply because there are beer breweries on every corner. The Brewers’ offense is led by their version of Big and Rob, Prince Fielder (54, 20, 58, .275) and Ryan Braun (56, 25, 72, .294); who, I might add, are probably funnier than the real Big and Rob in their sleep. Corey Hart (52, 16, 59, .284) continues to develop into a formidable player, and J.J. Hardy (47, 14, 45, .296) seems to finally have figured out how to hit a pitch that isn’t an inside fastball. Mike Cameron hasn’t let his 30-game suspension affect his play, as his current .229 average remains in line with his career numbers.

The Brewers pitching is truly a mixed bag, as they commingle studs and stiffs as seamlessly as a political dinner party. Ben Sheets (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB, 10-3) has managed to remain healthy, much to the detriment of opposing hitters. C.C. Sabathia (1.36 ERA, 31/8 K/BB, 4-0, 3 CGs), last season’s AL Cy Young winner and prized mid-season acquisition, has been on an absolute tear since joining the Brewers. Converted reliever, Manny Parra (3.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 87/52 K/BB, 9-2), has also provided some stability in the rotation. All has not been sunny, however, as Jeff Suppan (4.65 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 56 ER, 58 Ks) continues to get shelled at a rate that has forced the Milwaukee brass to replace or repair home plate several times this season. Uber-prospect and ace-to-be, Yovani Gallardo, had his brief 08’ campaign ended by a torn ACL. Eric Gagne, who was without question the game’s most dominant closer between 02’-04’, has been so bad that his stat line will not be included in this article. Luckily for the Brew-Crew, ex-Pirate, Salomon Torres (2.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 34/20 K/BB), was waiting in the wings, and has converted 18 of 22 chances since taking over the closer’s role.
If there’s one thing that the Cardinals’ first half performance has taught us, is that the wizard behind the curtain is actually two, and their names are Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. At the outset of the season, St. Louis was a curious mix of washed up veterans, unproven youth, and a few of the player’s wives and girlfriends; however, that same sundry bunch is currently in the thick of the playoff hunt. The offense, per usual, revolves around the best hitter in baseball and lineup anchor, Albert Pujols (55, 18, 56, .349). Converted pitcher, Rick Ankiel (56, 22, 58, .276), and itinerate outfielder, Ryan Ludwick (65, 23, 69, .290), continue to make a living off of teams thinking better of pitching to them and not Pujols. The offseason saw the bellicose and oft-injured Scott Rolen get shipped off to Toronto in exchange for equally brittle, Troy Glaus (49, 18, 66, .278). Glaus, however, has remained healthy and is once again producing the kind of power numbers that made him an all-star in the past.

The real sleight-of-hand in St.Louis can be seen in the deft handling of the pitching staff by skippers, LaRussa and Duncan. Incumbent ace, Chris Carpenter, has yet to throw a pitch in 08’, and his rehab from Tommy John surgery has him on track to return in early to mid-August. Mark Mulder has managed just 1 start this season due to recurring rotator cuff and shoulder issues. Former closer and default ace, Adam Wainwright (3.14, 1.09, 62/20 K/BB, 6-3), continued to develop into a promising starter until a torn finger tendon sidelined him in early June. Even bullpen stalwart, Jason Isringhausen (6.17 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 27/17 K/BB), has made 2 trips to the DL (abdominal strain/hand laceration), in addition to being generally ineffective when healthy.

Amidst the ever growing casualty list, Tony LaRussa, who in the grand tradition of Nugget O’Cass (who doesn’t need a gun because he’s got a Donk), doesn’t need healthy pitchers (or even good ones) because he’s got a Duncan (see Dundee, Crocodile for reference). Career stiff and rumored Safeway bag-boy-to-be, Kyle Lohse (3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 70/31 K/BB, 12-2), has turned his career around in a big way. This is the same Kyle Lohse who has never finished a season with an ERA under 4.00, and has posted 2 winning records in 7 major league seasons. The guy has pitched like a true ace, and I will venture to say that if he keeps pitching at this rate he will be under serious consideration for the NL Cy Young at season’s end. Converted relievers, Todd Wellemeyer (4.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 79/39 K/BB, 8-4) and Braden Looper (4.49 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9-8), have also performed above expectations. Former batting practice hurler, Ryan Franklin (3.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 14 saves), has successfully converted 14 of 19 chances since stepping into the closer’s role.

The Cincinnati offense, in concert with the 200 foot fence at The Great American Ballpark, is built to hit it far and trot slowly, afterwards. They currently rank 4th in the NL in homers (119), due in no small part to the launching pad that is Adam Dunn (55, 29, 66, .237). 2nd baseman, Brandon Phillips (58, 16, 62, .275, 21 SBs), should finish the season as a member of the 30-30 club, again. Junior Griffey (48, 13, 49, .243) continues to be an offensive force despite his advancing age, and Jerry Hairston (34, 2, 22, .351, 15 SBs), has excelled at the top of the order, as well as being a vast improvement over automatic out, Corey Patterson (736/161 K/BB for career dating back to 2000).

The Reds’ rotation has experienced its share of ups and downs this year. Edison Volquez (2.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 129/59 K/BB, 12-3), who came to Cincinnati in exchange for sending Josh Hamilton to Texas, has been nothing short of lights out, thus far. Fellow young gun, Johnny Cueto (4.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 113/46 K/BB, 7-9), burst onto the scene in April with a 7 inning, 10 K performance that sent fantasy owners everywhere scurrying to their computers. His subsequent rookie struggles have arrived in turn, however, adding more credence to this writer’s humble opinion that one should never listen to an ESPN analyst not named Gammons, Olney, or Miller when baseball is the topic of discussion. Fallen ace, Aaron Harang (4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 108/34 K/BB, 3-11), has been on the wrong side of terrible for most of the season despite a healthy K/BB ratio. In the bullpen, Jeremy Affeldt (3.75 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 53/20 K/BB) and Mike Lincoln (3.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 45/13 K/BB), have spent much of their season hanging out in mediocre-ville. Francisco Cordero (3.50 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 49/29 K/BB, 21 saves), who signed a 4-year $46 million contract in the offseason, has converted 21 of 27 save chances, while adding more weight to that old fantasy adage, ‘never pay a lot for saves.’

Truth be told, the Pittsburgh Pirates are one of a handful of franchises in baseball that should not exist because they do not turn a profit (and should probably be thankful for the concept of revenue sharing for what money they do make). Due to that fact, what talent they do develop will invariably walk out the door, leaving the Pirates to return to their fruitless Sisyphusian task of being a baseball academy rather than an actual franchise. With that rant aside, the 08’ Pirates, who are currently tied for 5th in the NL in team average (.264), have some players that can swing the sticks. Leadoff man, Nate McLouth (76, 21, 70, .277, 11 SBs), hasn’t let his lack of free passes (only 39 BBs in 404 Abs) get in the way of producing big numbers. Jason Bay (69, 22, 61, .289), one of 06’s more glaring disappointments, has rediscovered his love of yard work and continues to rake at a pace that would eclipse his career marks in R, HR, and RBI. Fellow OF, Xavier Nady (50, 13, 57, .330), has outperformed expectations and continues to be a pleasant surprise in the heart of the Pirate order.

The Pirates’ rotation has been some kind of awful this year. Of the 10 pitchers that have been sent to the bump to start, only 2 have an ERA under 4.00 (Maholm, Taubenheim). The bullpen has been mired under the same mediocre cloud as the starting staff. Franquelis Osoria owns a healthy K/BB ratio (30/11), but also has an ERA of 6.12. Tyler Yates has posted a passable 4.13 ERA, but puts almost as many hitters on as he strikes out (37/34 K/BB). Former closer, Matt Capps (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 29/5 K/BB, 17 saves), pitched well before being sidelined with bursitis in his shoulder. Damaso Marte (3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 47/16 K/BB) has since taken over the role and converted 5 of 7 save opportunities.

The Astros, despite a nearly $90 million payroll, find themselves in a dogfight for the NL Central cellar. Lance Berkman (82, 22, 75, .341, 15 SBs) continues to have one for the books, and ‘El Caballo’ (which is apparently some kind of wild Spanish horse), Carlos Lee (49, 22, 80, .306), continues to assault the fans beyond the outfield walls with baseballs, as well. Shortstop, Miguel Tejada (61, 10, 45, .272), and stud prospect, Hunter Pence (43, 12, 50, .264), have not played to the expectations of the Houston faithful. Centerfielder, Michael Bourn (33 SBs, .285 OBP, .227 Avg.), continues to struggle due to the rule prohibiting batters from stealing first base.

Houston’s starting rotation, which has historically been one of the team’s strong points, has been a lesson in futility this season. Only 2 starters can lay claim to a winning record (Brian Moehler and Chris Sampson), and both pitchers have given up almost as many earned runs as strikeouts (47/42, 41/42, K/ER). Ace and perennial all-star, Roy Oswalt (4.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 94/28 K/BB, 7-8), has struggled with injuries for much of the year, while pitching accordingly. The bullpen has been a mixed bag, with guys like Geoff Geary (2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 37/20 K/BB) and Oscar Villareal (5.02 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 21/17 K/BB) issuing far too many free passes to be very effective. The bleakness of night comes not without its stars, however, as set up man, Doug Brocail (3.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 41/13 K/BB), and closer, Jose Valverde (4.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 55/17 K/BB, 26 saves), have pitched well from the back end of the pen.

Alright, get out your pen and pad, it’s prediction time. After much consideration and debate, I will anoint the Chicago Cubs as my NL Central winners. The Brewers’ offense matches up nicely with the Cubs’ (and may even be better), but I think Chicago’s starting pitching is better prepared to endure the dog days of August and September. After Sheets and Sabathia, Milwaukee’s quality of pitching drops off sharply, and while that 2-punch combination might prove lethal in a 5-game playoff series, they’re gonna need to be deeper than that to overtake the Cubs. St. Louis has played over their heads, thus far, and unless they pony up and make a deal before the deadline, I don’t see them remaining competitive beyond mid-August. The Reds are a lopsided team, much in the image of the Rangers, which can hammer the ball, but can’t win because they can’t pitch. The Pirates will likely trade some of their key pieces and begin the annual process of cashing out their chips in order to pay for next season. The Astros have a better offense than the Bucs, and their pitching is not as bad as it’s performed. I expect them to overtake Pittsburgh in the standings; perhaps, even the Reds. On the final day of the baseball season, I expect the sports page to read: Chicago, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh.

05.08.08

MLB Mid-Season Review: NL East

- Baseball -

The National League East is home to 4 of the most competitive teams in baseball, as well as our capitol’s most talented Brownie troop. Economic powerhouses, New York (57-48) and Philadelphia (56-49), are currently atop the pile with only a game separating the two teams. The Florida Marlins are a mere 2 games off the lead despite having the lowest payroll in the majors, by a wide margin ($21.8 mil; next closest is Tampa Bay at $43.8). The best run organization in professional sports, the Atlanta Braves, stand at 7.5 games back. My Washington Nationals, that lovable Triple-A team, owns the league’s worst record and are a lock to take home basement honors in the East.

The Mets did not play up to their billing as a World Series caliber team for much of the first half, however, they have begun to gain momentum leading into the break. Their lineup is as potent and athletic as any in baseball. Leadoff hitter and human indy car, Jose Reyes (77, 12, 49, .302, 34 SBs), continues to exhibit a rare combination of both power and speed. Fellow Hampton Roads product, David Wright (72, 20, 82, .294), embodies an enviable mixture of power hitting and gold glove defense. First baseman, Carlos Delgado (58, 22, 67, .262), played like a man on the wrong side of the hill for the first 3 months of the season; however, his current .379 July average has been a big reason for the Mets’ recent upswing. Carlos Beltran (72, 15, 71, .266, 16 SBs) has posted solid numbers, but, per usual, September will likely turn his carriage back into a pumpkin and him into a stiff, along with it. On another note, Moises Alou, who has been injured for most of the season, publicly admitted that he couldn’t have caught the foul ball that made Steve Bartman so infamous. I’m sure if Bartman ever finds his way out of the federal witness protection program he’ll be sure to thank Mr. Alou for being so prompt with that admission.

The Mets’ starting rotation has been one of their strong points, this season. All-universe hurler, Johan Santana (2.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 125/39:K/BB, 9-7), has pitched every bit like the top shelf starter that New York is overpaying him to be. Mike Pelfrey (3.67 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 73/44:K/BB, 9-3) has lived up to his promising status, and North Stafford High alum, John Maine (4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 103/56:K/BB, 9-7), has continued to be a steady arm in the middle of the rotation. Former Red Sox great, Pedro Martinez (6.25 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 34/18:K/BB, 3-2), continues to make the Mets look silly for giving him a 4 year contract when every other team in the league wouldn’t go above 3. The bullpen has been a mixed bag, with the exception of laser beam specialist, Billy Wagner (2.00 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 48/9:K/BB, 26 saves). Even at the age of 37, I have no doubt he can hit triple digits on the gun anytime he wants to.

The Phillies entered the 08’ campaign fresh off demoralizing the rival Mets by winning 13 of their final 17 games to bump New York from last season’s NL playoffs. Philly, if you recall, was able to harness that momentum in getting stomped out by upstart Colorado in straight sets. Despite their disappointing finish, the 08’ Phillies remain a popular pick to contend for the division and league titles, again.

Reigning M.V.P., Jimmy Rollins (46, 7, 36, .271, 26 SBs), is as complete a player as there is despite his decreased power numbers (30 hrs in 07’). Early on it appeared Chase Utley (71, 25, 17, .288) was in the midst of a special season and a virtual lock to break the MLB mark for homeruns in a season by a 2-bagger (Roger Hornsby and Davey Johnson tied at 42). By the first week in June, the guy had 2 stretches where he put one out in 6 of 7 games (and 5 in a row). When he finally cooled off, fellow cannoneer, Ryan Howard (67, 30, 94, .237, and an amazing 138 Ks), began to send baseballs into the upper atmosphere at a rate that currently has him competing with Adam Dunn for the NL homerun crown. Pat ‘The Bat’ Burrell (56, 26, 61, .277) has displayed some consistency this season, after years of being banned from my fantasy rosters for being a streaky bas**ard. Shane Victorino (66, 8, 35, .283, 25 SBs), ‘The Flyin Hawaiian’, continues to hold the title of 2nd best nickname in baseball, which ranks only slightly behind Todd ‘Highway To’ Helton.

When the guys that designed your home field decide to build the fences down the lines only 330 feet from home plate, your ERA might be a bit higher than you’d like it to be. Despite that debilitating fact, some of Philadelphia’s pitchers have thrown well. Cole Hamels (3.27, 1.04 WHIP, 135/39: K/BB, 9-6) has become a bonafide ace despite being only 24 years of age. Father Time, himself, Jamie Moyer (3.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 79/37: K/BB, 9-6), is pitching at a much higher level than is traditionally expected of a 45-year old man in the midst of his 22nd major league season. Reliever, Chad Durbin (1.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 49/20: K/BB), was deported to Oakland for his excellence in the trade that brought Joe Blanton (7.88 ERA in 2 starts) to town. Former Minnesota Twin, J.C. Romero (2.32 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 36/28: K/BB), continues to shut down lefties and give out enough free passes to make the first baseline look like a New York crosswalk. At the back end of the bullpen, closer Brad Lidge (2.25 ERA, 1.18, 58/22: K/BB, 24 saves), seems to have finally healed from the mental scarring Albert Pujols put on him a few years back (one of the worst theories in sports, by the way), as he’s converted every save opportunity that Philly has asked him to.

The Florida Marlins began this year the same way they begin every year; as the favorites to finish in 4th place behind the Mets, Phils, and Braves. Things haven’t quite turned out that way, as The Fish continue to slug their way into contention (most HRs in majors with 150). Central to that effort has been Shortstop (that’s a capital S to match the one he wears on his chest), Hanley Ramirez (84, 24, 47, .300, 25 SBs). 3-bagger, Jorge Cantu (62, 18, 60, .289), moved from Stiffville to Florida during the off-season, and has played well enough to keep Dallas MacPherson (who has 37 HRs including a 7-game streak at Triple-A) in the minors. All-star 2nd baseman, Dan Uggla (65, 25, 63, .266), continues to press Chase Utley for offensive supremacy at the position. Admittedly, I thought his numbers were going down the tubes without Miguel Cabrera to protect him in the lineup; instead, his success serves as yet more evidence why no one should really entertain the idea of listening to me. Josh Willingham (34, 8, 27, .270) was hitting a robust .341 before being sidelined with an ailing back in early May. As you can see, he’s now hitting .270, but with a nickname like ‘The Hammer’, I fail to see why he needs to hit the ball, anyway.

The pitching in South Florida has not faired quite as well as the hitting. California native, Ricky Nolasco (3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 104/34: K/BB, 10-6), reportedly developed a cut-fastball during the off-season that has been paying big dividends, thus far. Scott Olsen (4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 72/50: K/BB, 6-5) and Mark Hendrickson (6.09 ERA, 1.52 ERA, 67/42: K/BB, 7-8) have both experienced flashes of brilliance mixed in with their usual repertoire of chucking and ducking. The bullpen has been a mixed bag, as well. Pick a reliever out of a hat (Renyel Pinto (54/35: K/BB), Logan Kensing (37/29), and Matt Lindstrom (30/17)), and it remains a virtual coin flip as to whether they will ring you up or walk you. Closer, Kevin Gregg (2.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 40/28: K/BB, 22 saves), has converted 22 of 28 save chances despite his high walk rate and proneness to fly balls.

I’m convinced that Braves’ helmsman, Bobby Cox (141 career ejections), could take a roster of mannequins into a season and still be a threat to win the division. In hindsight, mannequins might have been the way to go as I’d imagine they are less vulnerable to injury than the Atlanta players have been this year. Atlanta legend and sole member of the 200/100 club (wins/saves), John Smoltz (2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36/8: K/BB, 3-2), had his season cut short by shoulder woes. Leftfielder, Matt Diaz, is still rehabbing from a torn knee ligament he suffered in May. Closer, Rafael Soriano, has pitched a mere 12 innings this year due to nagging elbow issues. Veteran hurler, Tom Glavine, had never been placed on the DL during his 21 year career, until this season. Injuries to his hamstring and elbow have limited him to only 12 starts, thus far. Things have gone from bad to worse, lately, as ace Tim Hudson’s (3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 85/40: K/BB, 11-7) recent elbow injury will likely require him to undergo Tommy John surgery.

The Bravos’ offense has been led by perennial all-star and resident heartthrob, Chipper Jones (58, 18, 55, .369), whose early season batting successes nearly led me to move to Nepal just to escape the rampant media coverage. Receiver, Brian McCann (46, 20, 63, .302), continues to produce in the heart of the order. Streakiness, himself, Mark Teixeira (63, 20, 78, .283), performed well enough to get a bus ticket to Anaheim. Rightfielder, Jeff Francoeur (47, 9, 47, .235), has been some kind of terrible this season, and was even send down to Triple-A for a period of time. Human dynamite, Yunel Escobar (51, 6, 40, .283), has been slowed by some nagging injuries, but remains a force when healthy.

Of Atlanta’s staple exports, rappers and pitching, one has not faired as well as expected (much to my disappointment, it’s not the first one). As I’ve already pointed out, Smoltzy and Hudson are both out with injuries, and there remains a distinct possibility that neither will pitch again. Tom Glavine has also spent significant time on the DL, but I’m not sure if that’s a negative (34/33: K/BB, 1.57 WHIP). Jair Jurrgens (3.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 96/44: K/BB, 10-6), the young man from the Netherlands, has performed admirably in their stead. Converted reliever, Jorge Campillo (2.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 70/21: K/BB, 5-4), has also provided some stability to a disheveled rotation. With Soriano being sidelined with recurring elbow problems, the bullpen has been reshuffled several times. Manny Acosta (4.02 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 25/24: K/BB) was a crap shoot every time he took the bump, and couldn’t hold onto the closer’s role. Mike Gonzalez (3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 19/3: K/BB) returned from Tommy John surgery and has claimed the role for the time being. On a positive note, lefty-specialist, Will Ohman (2.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 41/18: K/BB), has been brilliant, thus far.

In the most remote cell in the deepest dungeon of the darkest castle built on the lowest point on earth lies Nationals Stadium. Inside lurks a motley band of brigands, so dear to my heart, yet so difficult to claim in public. Rather than offer statistics and other bits of evidence in support of how bad the Washington Nationals are, I offer a scene from the baseball classic, Bull Durham, which serves to illustrate what I imagine life as a Nat is really like.

[Larry jogs out to the mound to break up a players' conference]
Larry: Excuse me, but what the hell’s going on out here?
Crash Davis: Well, Nuke’s scared because his eyelids are jammed and his old man’s here. We need a live… is it a live rooster?
[Jose nods]
Crash Davis: . We need a live rooster to take the curse off Jose’s glove and nobody seems to know what to get Millie or Jimmy for their wedding present.
[to the players]
Crash Davis: Is that about right?
[the players nod]
Crash Davis: We’re dealing with a lot of shit.
Larry: Okay, well, uh… candlesticks always make a nice gift, and uh, maybe you could find out where she’s registered and maybe a place-setting or maybe a silverware pattern. Okay, let’s get two! Go get ‘em.

As for my predictions, the NL East will go to the Mets. The Phillies can hit with anybody in baseball, but their starting rotation and bullpen are not strong enough for them to keep pace with New York. Florida will fade, too, as their young pitching wears down and starts to amplify the holes that exist in their bullpen. The Braves are already building for next season, and the only story that remain there, Chipper Jones, is currently on the DL and likely won’t be hastened back. The Nationals’ brass are hopefully counting the revenue they’ve pulled in from their new stadium and bickering over how to reinvest it into their languid franchise. If not, there’s a good chance I found a ‘Go Back to Canada’ activist group and start contacting local politicians for support.

01.08.08

MLB Deadline Deals

- Baseball -

Junior Griffey headed to Chicago

Ken Griffey, Jr. chats it up with W.Ken Griffey Jr. has accepted a trade that effectively makes him a member of the Chicago White Sox. He joins a crowded outfield situation, with Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye already entrenched at the corners and Nick Swisher in center. Further complicating the impending depth chart is incumbent DH, Jim Thome. I’m sure the Sox would have no problem sitting Swisher (.230 avg) or 1b Paul Konerko (.214) based on their swooning production, but Griffey is a career outfielder who has yet to play centerfield this season.

The Reds acquire reliever Nick Masset and minor league 2b Danny Richar. Exactly who those guys are doesn’t mean nearly as much as what the trade itself signifies; which, is that Cincy is running up the white flag and thinking about next season. With the Reds not likely to pick up Griffey’s option for 09’, moving him makes sense.

Junior gives the White Sox a solid left-handed bat, as well as a serviceable 4th outfielder and DH. He’ll likely be used more as a stopgap for struggling starters than as an everyday player. His power numbers shouldn’t be affected by the change of venue, as both Great American Ballpark and U.S. Cellular Field rank in the top-10 hitter’s parks in the league.

Ramirez to L.A., Bay to Boston, bundle of talent to Pittsburgh

The ‘Manny just being Manny’ show has found another circus tent to call home: Dodger-town, U.S.A. After pow-wowing with fellow conspirators, L.A. and Pittsburgh, the Red Sox have agreed to send Ramirez to L.A., and prospects Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen to Pittsburgh. The Dodgers will send prospects Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to Pittsburgh, as well. The Pirates, in turn, will send Jason Bay to Boston.

Manny RamirezNow, the repercussions: Boston is moving the anchor of their order, in Ramirez, and acquiring the anchor of the Pirates’ order, in Bay. Their stat lines are similar, and although I don’t think Bay ever becomes the hitter Ramirez was in the past, the only con I see has nothing to do with talent, but lack of pressure experience. If anything, the Red Sox gained a player who won’t be a liability in the field, and whose behavior likely won’t raise as many red flags.

The Dodgers are parting with two high level prospects for the chance to get front row tickets to the existential experience that is Manny Ramirez. I do think his power numbers will take a slight hit, as Dodger Stadium is annually one of baseball’s best pitcher’s parks, but he remains a force to be reckoned with at the dish. His addition, however, does create some complications in L.A. It’s a well known fact that there is no DH in the NL, meaning Manny will have to play in the outfield if they expect him to bat. The first problem is obvious; Manny stinks on defense. Fenway’s peculiar dimensions (Green Monster, wall bordering LF foul line) have masked his limited defensive prowess for years, but he won’t be able to hide it in L.A., where there’s just as much foul ground as there is fair. The 2nd problem is that Manny will technically be the 5th outfielder. The other 4 have had to fight one another for playing time, and the addition of another player leads me to believe the Dodgers have finally decided to sit a certain $60.2 million centerfielder.

The Pirates, again, are made to bear the brunt that only economic inequality could provide. Jason Bay was one of their top offensive players, and because he was scheduled to make $7.5 mil next season and likely walk if not traded, the Pirates were forced to ensure they’d receive some type of compensation for him by trading him. This only serves to refuel the process of developing players that they will likely have to trade down the road for the very same reasons. I’m sure the players they received are solid prospects, but that’s beside the point. Unless a reasonable salary cap is implemented, we will see mid-market teams like the Pirates trade their best players to the economic powerhouses every single season.


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