The 6-team royal rumble that is the NL Central has turned out to be one of baseball’s strongest and most competitive divisions. Chicago stands at an impressive 16 games over .500, however, their margin of error remains small as Milwaukee and surprise St. Louis are 1 and 2 games back, respectively. Cincinnati, despite being only 4 games under .500, find themselves a whopping 10 games off the division lead. If they played in the NL West, they’d be tied for 2nd place and a mere 1 game back. Houston and lowly Pittsburgh are tied for cellar honors at 12 games back.

The Cubs haven’t won a World Series in 100 years, and I’m sure the Wrigley bandwagon is a bit crowded these days due to the rampant circulation of that fact; nonetheless, their lineup is loaded with talent. Derrek Lee (64, 15, 59, .298), who appears fully recovered from a wrist injury that he sustained in 06’ and sapped his power numbers in 07’, and third baseman, Aramis Ramirez (59, 17, 66, .269), continue to anchor the order. Asian sensation and residential hatamoto, Kosuke Fukudome (61, 7, 36, .279), has provided the steady left handed bat the Cubs have lacked in recent years. Rookie receiver, Geovany Soto (38, 16, 56, .275), has been a pleasant surprise and boon to the offense. Even Padre wash out, Jimmy Edmonds (26, 11, 37, .237), has been spotted parking balls on the opposite side of the ivy around game time. Alfonso Soriano (36, 15, 40, .283), the world’s worst lead off hitter, has had an injury riddled campaign, as he’s already spent 2 stints on the DL (strained calf, broken finger). Despite that fact, he’s managed to post solid numbers when playing, and his imminent return should serve to bolster an already potent lineup.

Chicago has been the recipient of some solid pitching, thus far. Ace and clubhouse boxing champ, Carlos Zambrano (2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 81/44 K/BB, 10-4), has spent much of the year pitching like a #2; however, he is without doubt the best hitting pitcher in the league, and could reasonably bat 6th or 7th on a nightly basis (20-57; .351 Avg). Ryan Dempster (3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 111/51 K/BB, 11-4) has made a successful transition to the rotation from the closing role that he’s held for the past 3 seasons, and Ted Lilly (4.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 114/43 K/BB, 9-6) has provided quality pitching, as well. In the bullpen, Bobby Howry continues to carry BP over into the game as he’s given up almost as many earned runs (25) as K’d batsmen (35). During the first quarter of the season, Carlos Marmol (4.05 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 70/25 K/BB) was so good that the defense actually started holding a poker game behind the 2nd base bag when he was on the mound, but has struggled with control issues of late. We have already seen Kerry Wood (3.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 55/13 K/BB, 24 saves) evolve from the next Roger Clemens into the next Chicagoan Wal-Mart attendant, and this season has seen him further evolve into the next John Smoltz (well, sort of).

There is hope in Milwaukee, these days, and not simply because there are beer breweries on every corner. The Brewers’ offense is led by their version of Big and Rob, Prince Fielder (54, 20, 58, .275) and Ryan Braun (56, 25, 72, .294); who, I might add, are probably funnier than the real Big and Rob in their sleep. Corey Hart (52, 16, 59, .284) continues to develop into a formidable player, and J.J. Hardy (47, 14, 45, .296) seems to finally have figured out how to hit a pitch that isn’t an inside fastball. Mike Cameron hasn’t let his 30-game suspension affect his play, as his current .229 average remains in line with his career numbers.

The Brewers pitching is truly a mixed bag, as they commingle studs and stiffs as seamlessly as a political dinner party. Ben Sheets (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB, 10-3) has managed to remain healthy, much to the detriment of opposing hitters. C.C. Sabathia (1.36 ERA, 31/8 K/BB, 4-0, 3 CGs), last season’s AL Cy Young winner and prized mid-season acquisition, has been on an absolute tear since joining the Brewers. Converted reliever, Manny Parra (3.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 87/52 K/BB, 9-2), has also provided some stability in the rotation. All has not been sunny, however, as Jeff Suppan (4.65 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 56 ER, 58 Ks) continues to get shelled at a rate that has forced the Milwaukee brass to replace or repair home plate several times this season. Uber-prospect and ace-to-be, Yovani Gallardo, had his brief 08’ campaign ended by a torn ACL. Eric Gagne, who was without question the game’s most dominant closer between 02’-04’, has been so bad that his stat line will not be included in this article. Luckily for the Brew-Crew, ex-Pirate, Salomon Torres (2.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 34/20 K/BB), was waiting in the wings, and has converted 18 of 22 chances since taking over the closer’s role.
If there’s one thing that the Cardinals’ first half performance has taught us, is that the wizard behind the curtain is actually two, and their names are Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. At the outset of the season, St. Louis was a curious mix of washed up veterans, unproven youth, and a few of the player’s wives and girlfriends; however, that same sundry bunch is currently in the thick of the playoff hunt. The offense, per usual, revolves around the best hitter in baseball and lineup anchor, Albert Pujols (55, 18, 56, .349). Converted pitcher, Rick Ankiel (56, 22, 58, .276), and itinerate outfielder, Ryan Ludwick (65, 23, 69, .290), continue to make a living off of teams thinking better of pitching to them and not Pujols. The offseason saw the bellicose and oft-injured Scott Rolen get shipped off to Toronto in exchange for equally brittle, Troy Glaus (49, 18, 66, .278). Glaus, however, has remained healthy and is once again producing the kind of power numbers that made him an all-star in the past.

The real sleight-of-hand in St.Louis can be seen in the deft handling of the pitching staff by skippers, LaRussa and Duncan. Incumbent ace, Chris Carpenter, has yet to throw a pitch in 08’, and his rehab from Tommy John surgery has him on track to return in early to mid-August. Mark Mulder has managed just 1 start this season due to recurring rotator cuff and shoulder issues. Former closer and default ace, Adam Wainwright (3.14, 1.09, 62/20 K/BB, 6-3), continued to develop into a promising starter until a torn finger tendon sidelined him in early June. Even bullpen stalwart, Jason Isringhausen (6.17 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 27/17 K/BB), has made 2 trips to the DL (abdominal strain/hand laceration), in addition to being generally ineffective when healthy.

Amidst the ever growing casualty list, Tony LaRussa, who in the grand tradition of Nugget O’Cass (who doesn’t need a gun because he’s got a Donk), doesn’t need healthy pitchers (or even good ones) because he’s got a Duncan (see Dundee, Crocodile for reference). Career stiff and rumored Safeway bag-boy-to-be, Kyle Lohse (3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 70/31 K/BB, 12-2), has turned his career around in a big way. This is the same Kyle Lohse who has never finished a season with an ERA under 4.00, and has posted 2 winning records in 7 major league seasons. The guy has pitched like a true ace, and I will venture to say that if he keeps pitching at this rate he will be under serious consideration for the NL Cy Young at season’s end. Converted relievers, Todd Wellemeyer (4.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 79/39 K/BB, 8-4) and Braden Looper (4.49 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9-8), have also performed above expectations. Former batting practice hurler, Ryan Franklin (3.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 14 saves), has successfully converted 14 of 19 chances since stepping into the closer’s role.

The Cincinnati offense, in concert with the 200 foot fence at The Great American Ballpark, is built to hit it far and trot slowly, afterwards. They currently rank 4th in the NL in homers (119), due in no small part to the launching pad that is Adam Dunn (55, 29, 66, .237). 2nd baseman, Brandon Phillips (58, 16, 62, .275, 21 SBs), should finish the season as a member of the 30-30 club, again. Junior Griffey (48, 13, 49, .243) continues to be an offensive force despite his advancing age, and Jerry Hairston (34, 2, 22, .351, 15 SBs), has excelled at the top of the order, as well as being a vast improvement over automatic out, Corey Patterson (736/161 K/BB for career dating back to 2000).

The Reds’ rotation has experienced its share of ups and downs this year. Edison Volquez (2.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 129/59 K/BB, 12-3), who came to Cincinnati in exchange for sending Josh Hamilton to Texas, has been nothing short of lights out, thus far. Fellow young gun, Johnny Cueto (4.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 113/46 K/BB, 7-9), burst onto the scene in April with a 7 inning, 10 K performance that sent fantasy owners everywhere scurrying to their computers. His subsequent rookie struggles have arrived in turn, however, adding more credence to this writer’s humble opinion that one should never listen to an ESPN analyst not named Gammons, Olney, or Miller when baseball is the topic of discussion. Fallen ace, Aaron Harang (4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 108/34 K/BB, 3-11), has been on the wrong side of terrible for most of the season despite a healthy K/BB ratio. In the bullpen, Jeremy Affeldt (3.75 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 53/20 K/BB) and Mike Lincoln (3.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 45/13 K/BB), have spent much of their season hanging out in mediocre-ville. Francisco Cordero (3.50 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 49/29 K/BB, 21 saves), who signed a 4-year $46 million contract in the offseason, has converted 21 of 27 save chances, while adding more weight to that old fantasy adage, ‘never pay a lot for saves.’

Truth be told, the Pittsburgh Pirates are one of a handful of franchises in baseball that should not exist because they do not turn a profit (and should probably be thankful for the concept of revenue sharing for what money they do make). Due to that fact, what talent they do develop will invariably walk out the door, leaving the Pirates to return to their fruitless Sisyphusian task of being a baseball academy rather than an actual franchise. With that rant aside, the 08’ Pirates, who are currently tied for 5th in the NL in team average (.264), have some players that can swing the sticks. Leadoff man, Nate McLouth (76, 21, 70, .277, 11 SBs), hasn’t let his lack of free passes (only 39 BBs in 404 Abs) get in the way of producing big numbers. Jason Bay (69, 22, 61, .289), one of 06’s more glaring disappointments, has rediscovered his love of yard work and continues to rake at a pace that would eclipse his career marks in R, HR, and RBI. Fellow OF, Xavier Nady (50, 13, 57, .330), has outperformed expectations and continues to be a pleasant surprise in the heart of the Pirate order.

The Pirates’ rotation has been some kind of awful this year. Of the 10 pitchers that have been sent to the bump to start, only 2 have an ERA under 4.00 (Maholm, Taubenheim). The bullpen has been mired under the same mediocre cloud as the starting staff. Franquelis Osoria owns a healthy K/BB ratio (30/11), but also has an ERA of 6.12. Tyler Yates has posted a passable 4.13 ERA, but puts almost as many hitters on as he strikes out (37/34 K/BB). Former closer, Matt Capps (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 29/5 K/BB, 17 saves), pitched well before being sidelined with bursitis in his shoulder. Damaso Marte (3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 47/16 K/BB) has since taken over the role and converted 5 of 7 save opportunities.

The Astros, despite a nearly $90 million payroll, find themselves in a dogfight for the NL Central cellar. Lance Berkman (82, 22, 75, .341, 15 SBs) continues to have one for the books, and ‘El Caballo’ (which is apparently some kind of wild Spanish horse), Carlos Lee (49, 22, 80, .306), continues to assault the fans beyond the outfield walls with baseballs, as well. Shortstop, Miguel Tejada (61, 10, 45, .272), and stud prospect, Hunter Pence (43, 12, 50, .264), have not played to the expectations of the Houston faithful. Centerfielder, Michael Bourn (33 SBs, .285 OBP, .227 Avg.), continues to struggle due to the rule prohibiting batters from stealing first base.

Houston’s starting rotation, which has historically been one of the team’s strong points, has been a lesson in futility this season. Only 2 starters can lay claim to a winning record (Brian Moehler and Chris Sampson), and both pitchers have given up almost as many earned runs as strikeouts (47/42, 41/42, K/ER). Ace and perennial all-star, Roy Oswalt (4.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 94/28 K/BB, 7-8), has struggled with injuries for much of the year, while pitching accordingly. The bullpen has been a mixed bag, with guys like Geoff Geary (2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 37/20 K/BB) and Oscar Villareal (5.02 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 21/17 K/BB) issuing far too many free passes to be very effective. The bleakness of night comes not without its stars, however, as set up man, Doug Brocail (3.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 41/13 K/BB), and closer, Jose Valverde (4.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 55/17 K/BB, 26 saves), have pitched well from the back end of the pen.

Alright, get out your pen and pad, it’s prediction time. After much consideration and debate, I will anoint the Chicago Cubs as my NL Central winners. The Brewers’ offense matches up nicely with the Cubs’ (and may even be better), but I think Chicago’s starting pitching is better prepared to endure the dog days of August and September. After Sheets and Sabathia, Milwaukee’s quality of pitching drops off sharply, and while that 2-punch combination might prove lethal in a 5-game playoff series, they’re gonna need to be deeper than that to overtake the Cubs. St. Louis has played over their heads, thus far, and unless they pony up and make a deal before the deadline, I don’t see them remaining competitive beyond mid-August. The Reds are a lopsided team, much in the image of the Rangers, which can hammer the ball, but can’t win because they can’t pitch. The Pirates will likely trade some of their key pieces and begin the annual process of cashing out their chips in order to pay for next season. The Astros have a better offense than the Bucs, and their pitching is not as bad as it’s performed. I expect them to overtake Pittsburgh in the standings; perhaps, even the Reds. On the final day of the baseball season, I expect the sports page to read: Chicago, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh.